Grid Load Forecasting Analyzer
Forecast grid demand with pattern analysis, weather correlation, and confidence intervals
What You Can Do
You can input historical load patterns, weather data, and external factors to generate accurate 24-72 hour ahead and week-ahead demand forecasts. The skill identifies hidden correlations, flags anomalies, integrates external intelligence (events, economic indicators, industrial schedules), and provides confidence intervals and actionable demand-side response recommendations to support reserve margin planning, generation unit commitment, and resource allocation decisions.
Features
Identifies recurring load shapes, seasonal trends, and weather-driven demand correlations from historical data
Flags unusual load patterns that deviate from normal seasonal behavior and data quality issues in SCADA feeds
Generates probabilistic forecasts with upper and lower bounds for risk-aware operational planning
Correlates temperature, solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation with demand to improve forecast accuracy
Quantifies demand shifts from holidays, sporting events, planned outages, and other known disruptions
Recommends load curtailment strategies and DSR activation timing based on forecast uncertainty
Explains deviations and trend changes for regulatory reporting and stakeholder communication
Example Output
Example 1: 48-Hour Ahead Forecast with Confidence Intervals
Hour 1-6 (Overnight): 4,250 MW ±180 MW (90% confidence)
Hour 7-12 (Morning ramp): 5,840 MW ±220 MW — sharp increase due to AC startup and EV charging
Hour 13-18 (Peak): 6,520 MW ±240 MW — elevated solar penetration reduces afternoon peak by ~180 MW vs. historical average
Hour 19-24 (Evening): 5,360 MW ±210 MW
Example 2: Anomaly Flag with Explanation
- ⚠️ Thursday 14:00 load spike flagged: 420 MW above 90th percentile for this hour/season
Likely cause: Industrial facility restart + cooling demand from 32°C temperature
Recommendation: Stage reserve capacity; monitor SCADA for confirmation
Example 3: Demand-Side Response Recommendation
Forecast shows 85% probability of peak exceeding 6,800 MW Friday 17:00-20:00
DSR Activation: Target 180-220 MW interruptible load reduction
Timing: Pre-notification 14:00, activation window 16:30-20:30
Expected benefit: Reduces reserve margin risk from 8% to 12%
What's Included
- SKILL.md instruction file with skill logic and decision trees:
- Load Forecast Template: structured input format for historical data, weather variables, and external factors
- Confidence Interval Checklist: methodology for probability distribution selection and boundary estimation
- Anomaly Scoring Framework: thresholds and flags for identifying unusual load patterns and SCADA quality issues
- DSR Recommendation Workflow: decision logic for load curtailment strategy and timing optimization
Who It's For
- Grid Operators — managing real-time balancing, reserve margins, and generation unit commitment
- Demand Planners — forecasting peak demand, planning infrastructure upgrades, and capacity procurement
- Energy Traders — anticipating price-driving demand patterns for day-ahead and intra-day markets
- System Operators — coordinating distributed energy resources and demand-side response programs
- Regulatory Analysts — explaining forecast deviations and supporting compliance reporting
Best For
- 24-72 hour ahead load forecasting for operational planning
- Week-ahead demand pattern analysis for generation scheduling
- Weather-driven demand correlation analysis during extreme conditions
- Anomaly detection and SCADA data quality validation
- Demand-side response and load curtailment strategy planning
- Forecast explanation and stakeholder communication
- Event impact quantification (holidays, outages, major disruptions)
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