Red Team Scenario Generator for Wargaming
Generate adversary courses of action and decision trees for wargaming simulations
What You Can Do
You can create multi-branch adversary decision trees, competing courses of action (COAs), and force allocation scenarios grounded in geopolitical factors, military doctrine, and resource constraints. The skill synthesizes strategic objectives with realistic limitations to generate plausible red team behavior models that force your wargaming team to stress-test assumptions and identify decision blind spots rather than relying on static historical templates.
Features
generates 3-5 distinct adversary options with clear logic trees showing decision points and escalation thresholds
creates probabilistic scenario pathways showing how adversary choices depend on blue team actions, environmental factors, and resource availability
models adversary resource trade-offs, including personnel, equipment, and logistics constraints that force realistic operational choices
maps gradual and rapid escalation options with triggers, off-ramps, and threshold analysis for conventional and unconventional tactics
deliberately generates counterintuitive or non-obvious adversary strategies to challenge team expectations and reveal analytical blind spots
grounds scenarios in actual military doctrine, historical patterns, and stated strategic objectives for credibility and rigor
formats outputs for rapid integration into simulation briefs, move orders, and red cell control documents
Example Output
Example 1: Three Competing COAs for Naval Strait Closure
COA Red-1 (Rapid Blockade): Immediate maritime denial via surface combatants and fast attack craft. Decision trigger: perceived economic advantage window. Resource cost: high fuel, maintenance exposure. Escalation threshold: direct fire exchange triggers political circuit-breaker.
COA Red-2 (Creeping Control): Phased presence increase with submarine patrols and commercial vessel interdiction. Lower visibility, plausible deniability. Escalation: responds only to explicit military action. Resource efficiency: sustainable for 90+ days.
COA Red-3 (Economic Coercion): Non-military pressure via insurance, port access restrictions, diplomatic isolation. Blue team response triggers: none required. Lowest risk, 6-month timeline.
Example 2: Force Allocation Decision Matrix
| Asset Class | COA Red-1 | COA Red-2 | COA Red-3 | Constraint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combat Vessels | 8 | 3 | 0 | 12 available |
| Attack Submarines | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 available |
| Air Assets | 24 | 8 | 0 | 40 available |
| Maintenance Surge | 14 days | 45 days | 0 | Logistics bottleneck |
Example 3: Escalation Pathway with Feedback Loops
Adversary detects blue carrier strike group movement → Initiates COA Red-1 (rapid blockade) → Blue responds with aerial reconnaissance → Red escalates to missile launch posture → Blue initiates diplomatic intervention → Red retreats to COA Red-2 (submarine presence) → Stalemate or negotiation trigger.
What's Included
- SKILL.md instruction file with full framework and use-case guidance:
- COA Template: structured format for documenting decision logic, resource costs, and escalation thresholds
- Decision Tree Worksheet: branching framework for mapping adversary choices across multiple blue team actions
- Force Allocation Matrix: asset inventory and constraint-modeling template
- TTX Control Document Checklist: checklist for integrating generated scenarios into tabletop exercise briefs and red cell orders
Who It's For
- Defense analysts and military strategists planning tabletop exercises and wargaming simulations
- Red team leads developing realistic adversary models for contingency planning and scenario analysis
- Joint Task Force planners stress-testing operational assumptions against competing enemy courses of action
- Strategic intelligence professionals modeling escalation pathways and decision dilemmas
- Force development teams evaluating concept viability against adaptive adversary responses
Best For
- Generating 3-5 distinct competing adversary courses of action for wargaming move analysis
- Creating escalation pathways and decision trees showing adversary response to blue team actions
- Modeling force allocation trade-offs under resource constraints and tactical dilemmas
- Stress-testing blue team assumptions by generating non-obvious or unconventional red strategies
- Developing control documents and briefing materials for tabletop exercises and military simulations
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