Retirement Projection Analysis Engine
Generate defensible retirement projections with stress-testing and tax-optimized withdrawal strat...
What You Can Do
You can generate detailed retirement readiness assessments that move beyond simple replacement ratios. This skill analyzes client-specific variables including Social Security claiming strategies, pension income, portfolio sequencing, tax bracket management, and longevity risk to create adaptive projections suitable for client presentations and regulatory documentation. You'll produce stress-tested scenarios showing how different market conditions, withdrawal rates, and spending decisions impact retirement success.
Features
model thousands of market scenarios to calculate success probability and identify sequence-of-returns risk
incorporate Social Security optimization, pensions, annuities, part-time income, and taxable/tax-deferred/tax-free withdrawals
recommend optimal account drawdown order to minimize lifetime tax liability across different account types
model early, full, and delayed claiming scenarios with longevity adjustments
evaluate portfolio resilience against inflation, market downturns, healthcare costs, and extended longevity
adjust projections based on guardrails approach (reduce spending in down markets, increase in strong years)
produce client-ready reports with methodology transparency for compliance review
Example Output
Example 1: Retirement Readiness Assessment
Client: Age 58, $1.2M portfolio, $45K annual spending, eligible for $28K/year Social Security at 70
Base Case (70% success rate):
- Claim Social Security at 70: $28,000/year (inflation-adjusted)
- Initial withdrawal: $48,000 from portfolio (4% + Social Security gap)
- Portfolio projected to age 95 with 78% probability
Stress Scenario (2008-style downturn in year 2):
- Portfolio drops 35%; spending reduces to $39,000
- Success probability: 62%
- Recommendation: Delay Social Security to 72 to reduce sequence risk
Example 2: Tax-Optimized Withdrawal Strategy
Client: $500K taxable, $800K traditional IRA, $300K Roth
Recommended annual sequence:
- Years 1-5: $15K taxable (long-term capital gains), $20K traditional IRA
- Years 6-15: $8K taxable, $30K traditional IRA, $7K Roth conversion
- Result: Effective tax rate 12% vs. 18% if withdrawn sequentially
Example 3: Scenario Comparison Matrix
| Scenario | Claim Age | Success Rate | Age 95 Balance | Max Spending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive | 62 | 68% | $120K | $62K/yr |
| Balanced | 70 | 78% | $385K | $68K/yr |
| Conservative | 74 | 87% | $520K | $64K/yr |
What's Included
- SKILL.md instruction file: complete methodology and decision framework
- Retirement projection template: structured data input form (age, assets, income sources, expenses)
- Scenario analysis framework: pre-built scenarios for Social Security timing, market stress tests, and withdrawal strategy comparison
- Tax-efficient withdrawal calculator: step-by-step logic for multi-account sequencing
- Client presentation checklist: items to include for regulatory compliance and client communication
Who It's For
- Financial advisors — create comprehensive retirement plans that differentiate your practice and stand up to client scrutiny
- Fee-only financial planners — generate defensible projections for retirement income planning engagements
- Wealth managers — conduct detailed retirement readiness assessments for clients 5-15 years from retirement
- Insurance professionals — model Social Security and pension strategies to position insurance solutions
- Estate planning attorneys — analyze retirement income adequacy as part of comprehensive wealth planning
Best For
- Retirement readiness assessments and comprehensive income projections
- Social Security claiming strategy optimization across multiple scenarios
- Tax-efficient withdrawal sequencing across account types
- Stress-testing portfolios against sequence-of-returns and longevity risk
- Scenario analysis for major retirement decisions (home downsizing, part-time work, long-term care planning)
- Client presentation materials demonstrating projected portfolio longevity
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